Peace-plan for Ukraine

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Execute summary

We outline a Peace-plan for Ukraine. The governing thought is: Ukraine sells territory to Russia for a fair price, like Russia has sold Alaska to the US. For other thoughts on peace-plans see time and euromaidanpress.

Problem analysis

Nobody can win this war. The longer it takes, the more all sides loose:

Ukraine looses lifes and infrastructure
Russia looses its future
The world suffers missing food
The war deteriorates the climate crisis instead of fighting it

Complication

Ukraine can fight back Russia, but never stop Russian aggression. Russia always retains the ability to impose Terror on Ukraine.
Russia has nuclear weapons, which means that unlike Nazi-Germany in 1939-1945, this problem cannot be solved by a world coalition with a third world war, especially since China is preventing Russia from collapsing under Western sanctions.
The Russian people seem to support the war as consequence of decades of propaganda and seem top have little influence anyhow

As a consequence

No military power whatsoever will force Russia to stop aggression or even give up its terrain gains.
However, the world must never recognize Russian territorial gains because this would provide an incentive to continue such aggression.

It follows, that the conflict is perpetuated, and the most likely outcome is ongoing war, ongoing suffering, ongoing sanctions, worsening climate-crisis. We have seen since 2014 that without a proper resolution to the conflict, this war is perpetuated. And all experts believe that an endless conflict is the most likely outcome: the German ISPK, the Institute for the Study of War, see also ukraine-conflict-updates and criticalthreats.org. Further sources are the (University College London)[https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2022/mar/war-ukraine-ucl-academics-provide-expert-comment-and-updates], the King’s College London, the University of Cambridge, the Oxford University.

Solution

There is only one solution to this dilemma: Ukraine sells occupied territory to Russia for a fair price and Russia pays reparations for the damages of the war. This has the following advantages:

With the prospect of such a plan, Russia has a strong incentive to enforce an immediate cease-fire, because there is no point in destroying the land you are buying dearly.
Negotiating money is more realistic than negotiating such big chunks as who gets Crimea
Terrorized Ukraine quickly gains peace, EU membership and prosperity
Russia, now a pariah state, regains a perspective of a sustainable economic future under international law, facilitating a peaceful neighborhood

Details (draft)

We envision the following details of such a Peace-plan

Pricing - a fair price for territory means valuation of the territory including all infrastructure as it was before Russia destroyed it - a fair price for reparations includes all costs of the war for Ukraine: the cost of the military operations, the cost for rebuilding all destroyed infrastructure and. yes, a cost per capita killed and a cost per capita or injured

Russian ownership of new territory is delayed and Sanctions against Russia remain in place until - Russia has payed all its depths, the decision for this with is with a Swiss-based trust committee
- all suspects for war crimes have been sent to La Hague or have permanently left Russia or are deceased meanwhile, the decision for this is in La Hague

Except from these sanctions are - Russian energy and raw material exports from which Russian debts are paid - technology imports to Russia that build-up massive renewable energy and renewable energy infrastructure (unless military dual-use)

All payments for Russian energy and raw material exports to sanctioning countries are handled via a Swiss-based trust committee. The cash-flow is divided into three percentage parts according to a Peace-plan agreement - one part flows to Ukraine - a portion goes to pay for renewable energy technology imports through the Swiss-based trust committee - one part flows to Russia

Agreements for Alliance memberships - Russia accepts that Ukraine becomes a member of the EU: with a perspective for a own renewable future this is not longer a thread to Russia - Ukraine accepts that it will not become member of the NATO: after having successfully fighting back Russia and with the new massive cash-flow replacing its military costs it does not need the NATO

Recommended further agreements - to prevent civil war in the new territory we recommend that Russia only buys territory where it expects that a fair referendum of the inhabitants will vote pro Russia - to speed-up the process of re-civilization we that Russia submits to the jurisdiction of The Hague and extradites suspects of war crime to The Hague. The same applies to the US.

Why should Ukraine agree?

it is Ukraine’s only perspective for peace
the reparations help to heal the damages of the war
the money for the sold territory (after reimbursing private property) can be used to turn Ukraine into a modern country that is independent of fossile energy by building-up massive renewable energy and renewable energy infrastructure
it brings Ukraine into the EU

Why should Russia agree?

because Russia no longer burns its people and economic resources in war
because this is the only way to turn this mess into something positive
because it is Russia’s only chance to not end up as a Pariah state
because it gives the Russian people are real perspective for economic wealth beyond the fossil age

Why should Putin agree?

because it is Putin’s only chance that there will be something to celebrate on “Victory Day” on May 9
because it is Putin’s only chance to be remembered in history books as someone with at least one positive decision for his country Russia
because it is Putin’s only chance to survive and to spend the rest of his life not in jail if he leaves Russia to a country that does not extradite to The Hague. Note that one of these countries is the US. So this could end in Russia protecting Snowden and Putin playing golf at Mar-a-Lago with his buddy Trump.

Why should Selenskyj agree?

Why should he not? Because some Ukrainians might not like the idea of selling territory to Russia? Demand a reasonable price and ensure that all displaced people receive adequate compensation. A hero like Selenskyj need not be afraid of the next election! Even if he would not be elected, he would be remembered for all eternity as the savior of Ukraine.

Why should the UN support this?

because the economics for the new Russian territory speak the costs speak for themselves, Russia will never again have an incentive to use war as a means of gaining territory: just buying it would be much cheaper.
because resolving this locked-in conflict could serve as a blueprint for resolving all the others that still are ongoing!
because the world urgently needs international cooperation to fight the climate crisis

PeacePlanForUkraine by Dr. Jens Oehlschlägel is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0